Credible Bounds for Causal Quantities with Continuous Outcomes

๐Ÿ“… 2026-09-13
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ๆœฌๆ–‡้’ˆๅฏน่ฟž็ปญ็ป“ๆžœๅ› ๆžœ้‡็š„ไธ็กฎๅฎšๆ€ง้—ฎ้ข˜๏ผŒๆๅ‡บไบ†ไธ€็ง็ฎ€ๅ•็š„่ดๅถๆ–ฏๆ–นๆณ•ๆฅๆŽจๅฏผๆฆ‚็އ่พน็•Œ๏ผŒ้€‚็”จไบŽๅคšๅ˜้‡ๅ’Œ/ๆˆ–่ฟž็ปญ็ป“ๆžœๅ˜้‡ใ€‚
๐Ÿ“ Abstract
The problem of partial identification concerns bounding causal quantities that remain unidentifiable given the observed distribution and the causal diagram of the underlying structural causal model (SCM). While bounds have been developed for certain causal quantities with continuous outcomes, they are necessarily univariate and are unable to reflect differing levels of confidence. Building on previous work in partial identification, we propose a simple Bayesian method for deriving probabilistic bounds on a large class of causal quantities with potentially multivariate and/or continuous outcome variables.
Problem

Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.

partial identification
causal quantities
continuous outcomes
bounds
Innovation

Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.

Bayesian method
probabilistic bounds
multivariate outcomes
continuous outcomes
partial identification
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J
Jason Saporta
Department of Statistics, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, USA