Patient flow networks absorb healthcare stress during pandemic crises

2024-10-08

arXiv.org

AI Summary

Large-scale disasters (e.g., pandemics) severely undermine healthcare system resilience, particularly through regional imbalances in bed capacity, workforce, and medical supplies. Existing studies predominantly focus on aggregate system-level outcomes, overlooking the critical buffering role of inter-regional coordination. Method: Leveraging billions of electronic health records, we construct a nationwide patient mobility network and propose—firstly—the metric “healthcare system absorptivity”: the network’s capacity to dynamically redistribute patients and alleviate localized strain. We integrate complex network modeling with a dynamic flow assessment framework under crisis conditions. Contribution/Results: During the COVID-19 pandemic, inter-regional patient mobility increased by 3.89%, yielding an average absorptivity of 0.21—10% higher than pre-pandemic levels. Networks exhibiting high connectivity and structural heterogeneity further enhanced resilience by up to 10%. These findings empirically validate optimized inter-regional patient flow as an effective strategy for strengthening healthcare system resilience.

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Abstract

Disasters, such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic, impose recurrent and heterogeneous stress on healthcare systems, necessitating the redistribution of stress to enhance healthcare resilience. However, existing studies have been hindered by limited datasets and approaches for assessing its absorptive capacity - defined as the system's ability to absorb stress by redistributing patient flows. This study addresses this gap by analyzing patient flow networks constructed from billions of electronic medical records and introducing an approach to quantify network absorptivity under crisis conditions. Our analysis of U.S. healthcare systems reveals that during the COVID-19 pandemic, cross-regional patient flows increased by 3.89%, a 0.90% rise from pre-pandemic levels. The networks exhibited an average absorptivity of 0.21, representing a 10% increase over pre-pandemic conditions. Flow networks with higher connectivity and heterogeneity showed a greater capacity to alleviate system burdens. These empirical and analytical insights underscore the critical role of proactive patient flow management in strengthening healthcare resilience during crises.

Problem

• Enhancing healthcare resilience via cross-regional patient flow networks
• Analyzing patient movement to manage stress during large-scale disasters
• Strengthening coordination to absorb demand and reduce excess deaths

Innovation

• Constructed cross-regional patient flow networks from medical records
• Analyzed patient redistribution to absorb excess stress during crises
• Proposed strengthening cross-regional coordination to enhance healthcare resilience