Exploring the Societal and Economic Impacts of Artificial Intelligence: A Scenario Generation Methodology

2025-03-31

AI Summary

The socioeconomic impacts of AI remain highly uncertain, hindering effective integration and deployment. Method: This study introduces an “Impact–Uncertainty Two-Dimensional Matrix” framework for scenario generation, integrating academic literature mining with thematic clustering to enable structured, evolutionary forecasting of AI’s macro-level effects. Moving beyond conventional unidimensional assessment, it identifies six high-impact–high-uncertainty domains—spanning labor market restructuring, public service delivery, and industrial governance—and constructs three distinct, policy-relevant future scenarios. Contribution/Results: The approach delivers actionable, forward-looking strategic guidance for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers, advancing AI governance from reactive empiricism toward evidence-based, anticipatory policymaking.

Technology Category

• Philosophy and Ethics of AI: Societal Impact of AI
• Humans and AI: Planning and Decision Support for Human-Machine Teams
• Reasoning under Uncertainty: Uncertainty Representations

Application Category

• Economics, Online Markets and Human Computation: Economic ramifications for generative AI infrastructure and applications
• Social Networks and Social Media: Generative AI / large language models and their impact on social systems
• Security and Privacy: Security and privacy of machine learning and AI applications

Abstract

This paper explores artificial intelligence's potential societal and economic impacts (AI) through generating scenarios that assess how AI may influence various sectors. We categorize and analyze key factors affecting AI's integration and adoption by applying an Impact-Uncertainty Matrix. A proposed methodology involves querying academic databases, identifying emerging trends and topics, and categorizing these into an impact uncertainty framework. The paper identifies critical areas where AI may bring significant change and outlines potential future scenarios based on these insights. This research aims to inform policymakers, industry leaders, and researchers on the strategic planning required to address the challenges and opportunities AI presents

Problem

• Assessing AI's societal and economic impacts across sectors
• Analyzing key factors in AI integration using Impact-Uncertainty Matrix
• Informing policymakers on AI challenges and opportunities

Innovation

• Scenario generation for AI impact assessment
• Impact-Uncertainty Matrix analysis method
• Academic database querying for trend identification