The Growing Self-Reliance of Chinese Innovation

2026-06-24

AI Summary

This study evaluates the extent to which Chinese technological innovation relies on U.S. science and how this dependency has evolved over time, thereby assessing the efficacy of U.S. technology restriction policies. By integrating large-scale patent–literature linkage analysis, scientometric methods, and cross-national knowledge tracing, the research provides the first systematic quantification of the global scientific origins underpinning Chinese invention patents. Findings reveal that the share of domestic scientific output supporting Chinese patents rose dramatically from 1% in 2000 to 26% by 2025, surpassing the U.S. contribution in 2021. This marked shift underscores a substantial localization of China’s scientific foundation for innovation, directly challenging the prevailing policy assumption that China remains heavily dependent on American science.

Abstract

U.S. policy increasingly seeks to slow China's technological rise by restricting its access to American science, on the assumption that Chinese innovation depends on U.S. science. Linking the full corpus of Chinese invention patents to the global scientific literature, we show that this dependence has fallen in recent years: the share of the China-produced science behind Chinese patents rose from 1% in 2000 to 26% in 2025, overtaking the U.S. share in 2021. As China's reliance on U.S.-produced science fades, policies restricting access fall out of alignment with the U.S.' actual strategic position.

Problem

• Chinese innovation
• U.S. science dependence
• technological decoupling
• science policy
• patent reliance

Innovation

• patent-scientific linkage
• technological self-reliance
• China innovation
• science dependence
• bibliometric analysis