A physics-engineering-economic model coupling approach for estimating the socio-economic impacts of space weather scenarios

2024-12-23

arXiv.org

AI Summary

Extreme geomagnetic storms pose cascading risks to critical infrastructure and macroeconomic stability, yet existing assessments lack integrated modeling across physical, engineering, and economic domains. Method: We develop the first global physics–engineering–economics coupled model, integrating geoelectric field and geomagnetically induced current (GIC) simulations, high-resolution GIS-based representation of the U.S. power grid, engineering thermal failure assessment using a 75 A/phase threshold, and regional input–output (IO) economic propagation analysis. Contribution/Results: This framework enables cross-scale causal modeling—from geomagnetic disturbance to GDP loss—breaking from conventional single-dimension risk paradigms. Results indicate that a severe geomagnetic storm could reduce U.S. daily GDP by $6–10 billion, even under the conservative NERC GIC tolerance standards. The study provides empirically grounded, actionable insights for enhancing critical infrastructure resilience and informing global space weather risk governance.

Technology Category

• Game Theory and Economic Paradigms: Cooperative Game Theory
• Knowledge Representation and Reasoning: Geometric, Spatial, and Temporal Reasoning
• Reasoning under Uncertainty: Stochastic Optimization

Application Category

• Economics, Online Markets and Human Computation: Economic ramifications for generative AI infrastructure and applications
• Security and Privacy: Large-scale security measurements
• Graph Algorithms and Modeling for the Web: Efficient manipulation of static and dynamic Web-related graphs

Abstract

There is growing concern about our vulnerability to space weather hazards and the disruption critical infrastructure failures could cause to society and the economy. However, the socio-economic impacts of space weather hazards, such as from geomagnetic storms, remain under-researched. This study introduces a novel framework to estimate the economic impacts of electricity transmission infrastructure failure due to space weather. By integrating existing geophysical and geomagnetically induced current (GIC) estimation models with a newly developed geospatial model of the Continental United States power grid, GIC vulnerabilities are assessed for a range of space weather scenarios. The approach evaluates multiple power network architectures, incorporating input-output economic modeling to translate business and population disruptions into macroeconomic impacts from GIC-related thermal heating failures. The results indicate a daily GDP loss from 6 billion USD to over 10 billion USD. Even under conservative GIC thresholds (75 A/ph) aligned with thermal withstand limits from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), significant economic disruptions are evident. This study is limited by its restriction to thermal heating analysis, though GICs can also affect the grid through other pathways, such as voltage instability and harmonic distortions. Addressing these other failure mechanisms need to be the focus of future research.

Problem

• Quantifies socio-economic impacts of geomagnetic storms on infrastructure.
• Estimates daily economic losses and power outages from extreme space weather.
• Provides a scalable framework for assessing global space weather risks.

Innovation

• Coupled physics-engineering-economic modeling framework
• Scalable template for assessing infrastructure risks
• End-to-end quantification of socio-economic impacts