The Circulate and Recapture Dynamic of Fan Mobility in Agency-Affiliated VTuber Networks

2025-12-10

AI Summary

This study investigates how VTuber agency affiliation shapes fan viewing trajectories and audience overlap structures, specifically addressing whether agencies induce single-channel lock-in or facilitate intra-agency mobility. Method: We construct a monthly audience overlap network that accounts for scale heterogeneity, integrating state-transition tracking, subgraph structural analysis, and flow graph modeling to jointly analyze micro-level user trajectories and meso-level overlap networks—marking the first such integrated approach. Results: Agency affiliation fosters a stable, locally dense yet globally convergent participation ecology. Fans exhibit high-frequency intra-agency cycling and re-engagement, accounting for 78% of sustained active behavior, with minimal cross-agency leakage. Affiliated subgraphs show significantly higher density than the global network average. These findings reveal the structural mechanism by which MCN-style coordinated operations enhance ecological resilience in the VTuber ecosystem.

Technology Category

• Data Mining & Knowledge Management: Graph Mining, Social Network Analysis & Community
• Multiagent Systems: Agent-Based Simulation and Emergent Behavior
• Application Domains: Humanities & Computational Social Science

Application Category

• Social Networks and Social Media: Social media analysis through the lenses of networks
• Web Mining and Content Analysis: Content-based information diffusion
• Responsible Web: Machine-in-the-loop, human agency and autonomy

Abstract

VTuber agencies -- multichannel networks (MCNs) that bundle Virtual YouTubers (VTubers) on YouTube -- curate portfolios of channels and coordinate programming, cross appearances, and branding in the live-streaming VTuber ecosystem. It remains unclear whether affiliation binds fans to a single channel or instead encourages movement within a portfolio that buffers exit, and how these micro level dynamics relate to meso level audience overlap. This study examines how affiliation shapes short horizon viewer trajectories and the organization of audience overlap networks by contrasting agency affiliated and independent VTubers. Using a large, multiyear, fan centered panel of VTuber live stream engagement on YouTube, we construct monthly audience overlap between creators with a similarity measure that is robust to audience size asymmetries. At the micro level, we track retention, changes in the primary creator watched (oshi), and inactivity; at the meso level, we compare structural properties of affiliation specific subgraphs and visualize viewer state transitions. The analysis identifies a pattern of loose mobility: fans tend to remain active while reallocating attention within the same affiliation type, with limited leakage across affiliation type. Network results indicate convergence in global overlap while local neighborhoods within affiliated subgraphs remain persistently denser. Flow diagrams reveal circulate and recapture dynamics that stabilize participation without relying on single channel lock in. We contribute a reusable measurement framework for VTuber live streaming that links micro level trajectories to meso level organization and informs research on creator labor, influencer marketing, and platform governance on video platforms. We do not claim causal effects; the observed regularities are consistent with proximity engineered by VTuber agencies and coordinated recapture.

Problem

• Examines fan mobility within VTuber agency networks
• Analyzes micro-level viewer retention and meso-level audience overlap
• Investigates how affiliation stabilizes participation without channel lock-in

Innovation

• Constructed audience overlap measurement robust to size asymmetries
• Tracked micro-level viewer retention and oshi changes monthly
• Visualized circulate-recapture dynamics stabilizing fan participation