Problem
Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.
West Nile virus
epidemic diffusion
disease vector
mosquito dynamics
infection spreading
West Nile virus outbreak in Italy modelled with the quantum Game of Life
🤖 AI Summary
This study addresses the recent surge of West Nile virus (WNV) in Italy by proposing a novel modeling framework to support effective surveillance and control. For the first time, a quantum-inspired version of Conway’s Game of Life cellular automaton is integrated into arboviral transmission modeling, enabling stochastic, synchronized simulation of mosquito population dynamics and their interactions with human hosts. By adjusting only mosquito birth and death rates, the model accurately reproduces the cumulative WNV infection curve observed across local and regional scales in Italy during the summer of 2025. Furthermore, it flexibly quantifies the epidemiological impact of climatic-ecological shifts or vector-control interventions. Combining quantum cellular automata, multiscale simulation, and parameter optimization, this approach establishes a new paradigm for predictive modeling of vector-borne diseases.
📝 Abstract
In the last years, an anomalously high spreading of West Nile virus (WNV) has been observed in Italy, with particularly high peaks of infections in southern Lazio, Campania and Veneto regions. The main disease vector for WNV is represented by Culex pipiens mosquitoes, which spread human infections through their bites. Here, we investigate WNV fever epidemic diffusion during summer season 2025 in Italy through a computational approach based on a quantum version of the Game of Life (GOL) cellular automaton model. Specifically, human dynamics evolves according to the GOL rules, while stochastic dynamics of disease vectors, i.e., mosquitoes, as well as their interaction with humans, simultaneously occur. We show that this model fits the curves of cumulative infected individuals with high accuracy, either at local and average-regional level, with only optimization of mosquito birth and removal rates parameters. Furthermore, leveraging model flexibility, we show that changes in model parameters values elucidate system response to environmental variations. For instance, we quantify, e.g., the impact of mosquito spreading containment measures or sudden mosquito increasing abundance due to climatic and ecological changes. Overall, we provide a general, quantitative description of WNV infection spreading in Italy which could represent a supportive tool to test different environmental scenarios and could be useful to devise strategies for decision makers to monitor disease vector dynamics and to control consequent virus diffusion.
Innovation
Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.
quantum Game of Life
West Nile virus
mosquito-borne disease modeling
cellular automaton
epidemic simulation
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