Harnessing Synthetic Data from Generative AI for Statistical Inference

2026-03-05

AI Summary

This work addresses the risks of bias in statistical inference when using synthetic data generated by modern generative AI models—such as diffusion models, GANs, and large language models—due to model misspecification, underestimation of uncertainty, and insufficient generalization. It presents the first systematic integration of generative modeling with statistical inference theory, clarifying the assumptions and conditions under which synthetic data can reliably support scientific discovery. By unifying uncertainty quantification, model diagnostics, and downstream task analysis, the study proposes a principled framework that delineates effective usage guidelines, identifies critical failure modes, and offers practical recommendations for researchers and developers, along with directions for future research.

Technology Category

• Machine Learning: Calibration & Uncertainty Quantification
• Reasoning under Uncertainty: Other Foundations of Reasoning under Uncertainty
• Natural Language Processing: Code Generation / Program Synthesis from Natural Language

Application Category

• Social Networks and Social Media: Generative AI / large language models and their impact on social systems
• Economics, Online Markets and Human Computation: Economic ramifications for generative AI infrastructure and applications
• Semantics and Knowledge: Data modeling to support human-machine intelligence, including LLMs agents, intelligent system behavior, explanations, and user-friendly interactions

Abstract

The emergence of generative AI models has dramatically expanded the availability and use of synthetic data across scientific, industrial, and policy domains. While these developments open new possibilities for data analysis, they also raise fundamental statistical questions about when synthetic data can be used in a valid, reliable, and principled manner. This paper reviews the current landscape of synthetic data generation and use from a statistical perspective, with the goal of clarifying the assumptions under which synthetic data can meaningfully support downstream discovery, inference, and prediction. We survey major classes of modern generative models, their intended use cases, and the benefits they offer, while also highlighting their limitations and characteristic failure modes. We additionally examine common pitfalls that arise when synthetic data are treated as surrogates for real observations, including biases from model misspecification, attenuated uncertainty, and difficulties in generalization. Building on these insights, we discuss emerging frameworks for the principled use of synthetic data. We conclude with practical recommendations, open problems, and cautions intended to guide both method developers and applied researchers.

Problem

• synthetic data
• generative AI
• statistical inference
• model misspecification
• uncertainty quantification

Innovation

• synthetic data
• generative AI
• statistical inference
• model misspecification
• uncertainty quantification