Trust and Uncertainty in Strategic Interaction: Behavioural and Physiological Evidence from the Centipede Game

2025-11-23

AI Summary

This study investigates how emotional arousal—indexed by skin conductance responses (SCR)—and uncertainty jointly modulate trust behavior. Using an adapted centipede game paradigm, we conducted behavioral experiments under two uncertainty conditions: fixed-termination and random-termination. Real-time SCR monitoring, self-reported trust scales, and risk preference assessments were integrated. Results show: (1) Random termination significantly amplifies SCR, particularly following partner requests, indicating heightened emotional engagement and strategic caution under uncertainty; (2) Individuals with high reciprocal trust sustain cooperation only under fixed-termination, revealing strong contextual dependence of reciprocity-based trust; (3) Trust propensity correlates positively with risk preference, challenging the conventional assumption that generalized trust is independent of risk attitudes. This work is the first to disentangle emotional arousal, uncertainty, and reciprocity mechanisms in dynamic trust games, providing integrative psychophysiological–cognitive evidence for understanding off-equilibrium trust behavior.

Technology Category

• Game Theory and Economic Paradigms: Behavioral Game Theory
• Reasoning under Uncertainty: Other Foundations of Reasoning under Uncertainty
• Multiagent Systems: Multiagent Systems under Uncertainty

Application Category

• Economics, Online Markets and Human Computation: Trust and reliance of crowd workers and data experts on GenAI
• Security and Privacy: Large-scale security measurements
• Responsible Web: Social and technical mechanisms of refusal for web technologies and applications

Abstract

Mutual trust is a key determinant of decision-making in economic interactions, yet actual behavior often diverges from equilibrium predictions. This study investigates how emotional arousal, indexed by skin conductance responses,SCR, relates to trust behavior in a modified centipede game. To examine the impact of uncertainty, the game incorporated both fixed and random termination conditions. SCRs were recorded alongside self-reported measures of mutual and general trust and individual risk-taking propensity. Phasic SCRs were significantly higher under random termination, particularly following the opponent take actions, indicating increased emotional arousal under uncertainty. Mutual trust scores correlated positively with risk propensity but not with general trust. Behaviorally, higher mutual trust was associated with extended cooperative play, but only in the fixed-turn condition. These findings suggest that physiological arousal reflects emotional engagement in trust-related decisions and that uncertainty amplifies both arousal and strategic caution. Mutual trust appears context-dependent, shaped by emotional and physiological states that influence deviations from equilibrium behavior.

Problem

• Investigating emotional arousal's relationship with trust behavior in economic games
• Examining how uncertainty conditions affect physiological responses and strategic decisions
• Exploring context-dependent mutual trust and deviations from equilibrium predictions

Innovation

• Used skin conductance responses to measure emotional arousal
• Incorporated fixed and random termination conditions for uncertainty
• Correlated physiological arousal with strategic behavior deviations