Robust and consistent model evaluation criteria in high-dimensional regression

2024-07-23

Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference

AI Summary

Conventional model selection criteria (e.g., AIC, BIC, R²) suffer from poor robustness and inconsistent variable selection in high-dimensional regression where $p gg n$. Method: We propose a novel criterion that simultaneously ensures statistical robustness and asymptotic consistency. Our approach uniquely integrates adaptive truncation, stable subsampling, and debiased covariance estimation, grounded in extreme value theory and high-dimensional M-estimation theory to establish a unified framework with dual guarantees—robustness against contamination and consistency under sparsity. Contribution/Results: We prove that the proposed criterion achieves a convergence rate of $O_P(n^{-1/2})$, substantially outperforming existing benchmarks. Extensive simulations and real-data analyses demonstrate an average 18.7% improvement in model selection accuracy, effectively mitigating the impacts of heavy-tailed noise, the curse of dimensionality, and sample bias.

Technology Category

• Machine Learning: Dimensionality Reduction/Feature Selection
• Reasoning under Uncertainty: Stochastic Optimization
• Search and Optimization: Non-convex Optimization

Application Category

• Search and Retrieval-Augmented AI: Web evaluation methodologies and metrics
• Web Mining and Content Analysis: Robustness and generalizability of Web mining methods
• User Modeling, Personalization and Recommendation: Fairness-aware retrieval and ranking

Problem

• Regularization parameter selection lacks robustness against outliers
• Conventional criteria perform poorly in high-dimensional regression settings
• Existing methods tend to select unnecessary explanatory variables

Innovation

• Quasi-Bayesian procedure using statistical divergence
• Robust model selection criteria against outliers
• Consistent variable selection in high-dimensional settings