HeatCast: A Benchmark for Neighborhood-Scale LST Forecasting across 124 U.S. Cities
This study addresses the lack of a unified, high-resolution, and open-access benchmark for urban land surface temperature (LST) prediction. To this end, it establishes the first Landsat-based 30-meter monthly LST forecasting benchmark covering 124 U.S. cities from 2013 to 2025, integrating multi-channel remote sensing data—including surface reflectance, spectral indices, albedo, and Local Climate Zone (LCZ) labels—and introducing a fixed temporal split with LCZ-stratified evaluation. Experiments using CNN+LSTM and Earthformer models demonstrate that Earthformer achieves an RMSE of 7.74 K for next-month LST prediction; notably, using only non-LST input channels yields an RMSE of 7.72 K, substantially outperforming approaches relying solely on historical LST or RGB data, thereby confirming the efficacy of multi-source non-LST information for accurate LST forecasting.