Modelling Distributional Impacts of Carbon Taxation: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
This study addresses the inconsistent findings in the literature regarding the distributional effects of carbon taxation, which largely stem from differences in modeling approaches and assumptions. It presents the first systematic review and meta-analysis of 217 microsimulation studies across 71 countries, employing a Probit model to examine how key methodological choices—such as the inclusion of imported emissions, behavioral responses, and general equilibrium effects—influence conclusions about regressivity. The analysis reveals that accounting for imported emissions significantly reduces the likelihood of finding carbon taxes regressive. Studies using outdated data, explicitly measuring tax progressivity or income inequality, or incorporating household behavioral responses are less likely to report regressive outcomes, whereas those including general equilibrium effects are more prone to conclude regressivity. This work provides both methodological guidance and empirical evidence toward a more harmonized assessment of carbon tax distributional impacts.