Extreme-value forest fire prediction A study of the Loss Function in an Ordinality Scheme
This study addresses the challenge of predicting extreme wildfires, whose spatial distribution and intensity exhibit severe imbalance, by proposing the first ordinal classification framework tailored for operational wildfire risk decision-making in France. The approach integrates intensity ordering, data imbalance, and seasonal risk through ordinal-aware loss functions—specifically WKLoss and a newly introduced Truncated Discrete Exponential Generalized Pareto Distribution (TDeGPD)—aligned with fire intensity levels. Large-scale benchmarking on real-world data across multiple neural architectures demonstrates that WKLoss achieves an IoU improvement of over 0.1 on the most extreme intensity class while maintaining good calibration, confirming that ordinal supervision significantly outperforms conventional cross-entropy. Nevertheless, prediction of extremely rare events remains constrained by severe sample scarcity.