Reserve Depletion and Security Runway in Proof-of-Stake Systems
This study investigates whether proof-of-stake (PoS) systems can securely transition to relying solely on transaction fees for security under finite token reserves. To this end, the authors develop a discrete-time stochastic model that captures validators’ strategic participation in response to price and demand fluctuations, characterize the equilibrium of their entry game, and introduce a state-dependent reserve threshold. This threshold partitions the system dynamics into three regimes: infeasible, reserve-dependent security, and pure fee-based security. By integrating a Markov decision framework with forward-looking participation conditions, the work overcomes the limitations of conventional reserve policies assessed merely by nominal exhaustion dates. The analysis yields explicit bounds on the probability of security failure and expected transition time, providing computable reserve requirements that enable quantitative stress testing of PoS systems’ capacity for secure fee-only operation.