Bayesian Event-Based Model for Disease Subtype and Stage Inference
Existing models for chronic disease subtyping and progression staging suffer from limited robustness due to model misspecification. Method: We propose a Bayesian Event Sequence Model (BESM) that jointly infers disease subtypes, individualized event ordering, and patient-stage assignments within a Bayesian framework—balancing robustness with biological interpretability. By incorporating structured priors and rigorous uncertainty quantification, BESM improves tolerance to model misspecification relative to the widely used SuStaIn model. Contribution/Results: On synthetic data, BESM consistently outperforms SuStaIn in both subtype classification accuracy and event sequence recovery fidelity. In a real-world Alzheimer’s disease cohort, BESM-derived subtypes and progression pathways align more closely with established neuropathological consensus—yielding biologically plausible staging trajectories and mechanistic insights. Thus, BESM provides a robust, interpretable tool for precision staging and pathophysiological dissection of neurodegenerative disorders.