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Georgetown University

Academic institutionnorthamerica · us
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Research library222linked papers
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Selected work

Representative Papers

Assessing Omitted Variable Bias when the Controls are Endogenous

Jun 06, 2022

This paper addresses sensitivity analysis for omitted-variable bias in causal inference, focusing on the critical yet overlooked scenario where omitted variables are endogenous with respect to included controls—a setting neglected by existing methods. Conventional residualization-based approaches suffer from theoretical deficiencies under endogeneity, leading to erroneous robustness assessments; meanwhile, prevailing sensitivity analyses either rely on strong independence assumptions or lack comparable calibration. We formally prove the failure mechanism of residualization and propose a novel sensitivity analysis framework that explicitly accommodates correlation between omitted and observed covariates. Our approach introduces a standardized sensitivity parameter enabling comparable calibration of observable and unobservable selection strength. Theoretical derivation, implementation via a Stata module (regsensitivity), and empirical validation—using historical frontier settlement to instrument cultural beliefs—demonstrate that the framework rectifies fundamental theoretical shortcomings of mainstream methods and delivers a ready-to-use tool for robust causal inference.

17 citations2 influentialRead paper

Linear space streaming lower bounds for approximating CSPs

Jun 24, 2021Electron. Colloquium Comput. Complex.

This work investigates the approximability threshold of constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs) in the streaming model. For $n$-variable CSPs over domain ${0,dots,q-1}$ with $O(n)$ constraints, we prove that any algorithm achieving approximation ratio strictly better than the trivial $1/q$ requires $Omega(n)$ space—establishing the first linear-space lower bound for approximation ratios below $1/2$. Methodologically, we extend the Kapralov–Krachun linear lower-bound technique to general CSPs (surpassing prior $Omega(sqrt{n})$ bounds) via modular-$q$ linear equation encoding, communication complexity analysis, and pseudorandom hard-instance reduction. This yields optimal $q^{-(k-1)}$ inapproximability for Max $k$-LIN mod $q$ with $k>2$, $q>2$. Our results uniformly characterize the streaming hardness of broad CSP subclasses: all nontrivial approximation requires essentially linear space, significantly advancing the theoretical understanding of streaming algorithm limitations.

15 citationsRead paper

Dynamic heterogeneous distribution regression panel models, with an application to labor income processes

Feb 08, 2022Social Science Research Network

This paper addresses the challenge of dynamic forecasting and steady-state distribution inference in panel data with cross-sectional heterogeneity in unit-specific coefficients. We propose a dynamic heterogeneous distribution regression framework that jointly estimates individual-level heterogeneous coefficients and their functional targets—including one-step-ahead forecasts, steady-state cross-sectional distributions, and quantile treatment effects. To enable uniform asymptotically valid inference on functional parameters under unknown heterogeneity, we develop a novel cross-sectional bootstrap procedure—the first of its kind for such settings. The method integrates fixed-effects estimation, distribution regression, and quantile treatment effect modeling. Empirical application to PSID data reveals that negative income shocks significantly increase right-skewness in labor income distributions and raise poverty persistence rates, while higher education mitigates these effects; moreover, income mobility exhibits systematic heterogeneity across individuals. Simulation studies confirm the method’s robustness and reliability.

4 citations1 influentialRead paper

The Impact of AI on the Cyber Offense-Defense Balance and the Character of Cyber Conflict

Apr 17, 2025

This study examines the multidimensional impact of AI’s continuous evolution on the cyber offense-defense balance and the nature of cyber conflict. Methodologically, it develops the first comprehensive classification framework—grounded in systematic literature review and argument-mapping analysis—that identifies and organizes 44 distinct AI influence pathways. Integrating international security theory (Healey, Jervis, Nandrajog) with AI technical impact models, the study systematically assesses AI’s effects on nine offensive advantages, nine defensive advantages, and forty-eight cyber-competition attributes. Results refute the oversimplified narrative of AI unidirectionally favoring offense or defense, instead revealing context-dependent, bidirectional, and heterogeneous effects: AI can enhance, diminish, or leave unchanged specific offensive or defensive capabilities under empirically specified conditions. The findings provide a fine-grained theoretical foundation and actionable guidance for cyber strategy formulation, AI safety governance, and evidence-based policy design.

1 citationsRead paper

Ordered Probabilistic Choice

Apr 01, 2025

This paper addresses the challenge of identifying heterogeneous individual-level choice behaviors from macro-level aggregate selection data. To this end, it establishes, for the first time, a systematic theoretical linkage between ordered probit choice models and copula theory, mapping individual heterogeneity onto the structural form of copula functions. The authors propose an analytically tractable representation based on extreme-value theory, enabling unique and unbiased identification of both heterogeneity types and their mixing weights. Methodologically, the approach integrates copula modeling, extreme-value function analysis, and structural identification theory to derive a general closed-form extreme-value representation. This framework overcomes key limitations of conventional aggregate modeling—such as loss of behavioral granularity and identifiability constraints—thereby substantially improving the accuracy, interpretability, and structural fidelity of micro-behavioral inference. It introduces a novel paradigm for discrete choice analysis, behavioral econometrics, and multivariate dependence modeling.

1 citationsRead paper
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