Foresight-England: Development of a National-Scale Generative AI Model of Electronic Health Records for Medical Event Prediction across the COVID-19 Pandemic
This study addresses the challenges of generative modeling and epidemic event prediction using national-scale Electronic Health Records (EHRs) by constructing the first national-level EHR foundation model. Employing a 243-million-parameter Transformer decoder, the model performs autoregressive learning on data from 61 million individuals through fine-grained clinical code tokenization, enabling zero-shot inference and joint temporal representation. Although quantitative results are currently unavailable due to data access restrictions, this work releases a comprehensive methodological template and evaluation framework. Consequently, it establishes a reproducible paradigm and innovative benchmark for large-scale generative EHR modeling and healthcare event forecasting, facilitating future research in this critical domain despite present empirical limitations.