Non-stationary GEV models for estimating design sea-states in a changing climate. Applications to offshore wind farms along the French coasts
This study addresses the inadequacy of conventional extreme-event design methods—based on stationarity assumptions—in ensuring the durability of offshore wind structures in France under nonstationary sea conditions driven by climate change. To overcome this limitation, a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) model is developed, integrating CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections with reanalysis data to quantify future changes in extreme sea states using monthly maxima of significant wave height. The work further introduces a lifetime-equivalent design sea state framework for forward-looking structural design. Results indicate intensified winter extremes and attenuated summer extremes in the Atlantic and English Channel, leading to heightened seasonal contrasts, while trends in the Mediterranean remain uncertain. Overall, design conditions are projected to become more severe, underscoring the necessity of abandoning stationarity assumptions to enhance climate resilience in offshore wind infrastructure.