A Spatio-Temporal Deep Learning Approach For High-Resolution Gridded Monsoon Prediction
This study addresses the limitations of traditional monsoon forecasting, which typically provides coarse, regionally averaged seasonal point estimates that are insufficient for fine-scale management. For the first time, Indian summer monsoon prediction is formulated as a spatiotemporal video prediction task. A deep learning model based on convolutional neural networks is developed, using multivariate atmospheric and oceanic fields from January to May as multi-channel image sequences. Leveraging ERA5 reanalysis and India Meteorological Department (IMD) observational data, the model establishes a high-resolution gridded mapping from the precursor period to the monsoon season (June–September). This approach overcomes conventional constraints by enabling high-spatial-resolution forecasts of both monthly and total seasonal rainfall, thereby supporting refined climate outlooks at both intraseasonal and seasonal timescales.