Causal explanations of outliers in systems with lagged time-dependencies
This work addresses the challenge of root cause localization in time-varying dynamic systems with lag effects and memory properties—such as energy systems—where anomalies exhibit complex temporal dependencies. For the first time, the authors extend a strictly causal root cause analysis framework to such systems, introducing two truncation strategies to manage infinite-time dependency graphs: one preserving the original causal mechanisms and the other employing mechanism approximation. By integrating causal graph modeling with a data generation approach tailored to energy consumption peak scenarios, the proposed method is evaluated in a simulated factory environment. Results demonstrate that, given sufficient lag order, the approach accurately identifies the spatiotemporal origins of anomalies, while also quantifying the performance trade-offs introduced by mechanism approximation.