From data to design: Random forest regression model for predicting mechanical properties of alloy steel
This study addresses the challenge of accurately predicting mechanical properties—namely elongation, tensile strength, and yield strength—of alloy steels. We propose an ensemble learning prediction framework based on random forest regression. The model leverages chemical composition (Fe, Cr, Ni, Mn, Si, Cu, C, etc.) and cold-rolling reduction ratio as input features, integrated with systematic feature engineering, five-fold cross-validation, residual analysis, and learning curve diagnostics for robust modeling and optimization. Compared to conventional empirical formulas and single-model approaches, the proposed framework significantly enhances nonlinear relationship modeling capability and prediction robustness. On the test set, it achieves R² scores of 0.92–0.96 and reduces root-mean-square error (RMSE) by over 35%. These results demonstrate its practical utility in alloy design and process optimization, underscoring strong potential for industrial deployment.