Solution of the Hempel's statistical ambiguity problem and Causal AI
This work addresses Carl Hempel’s problem of statistical ambiguity—the challenge of deriving contradictory predictions from statistical regularities—by proposing a framework of Maximal Specific Causal Relationships (MSCRs) grounded in Nancy Cartwright’s probabilistic theory of causality. The approach formalizes causal rules, semantic probabilistic reasoning, and context-sensitive probability-raising models, integrating invariant feature learning with invariant causal prediction to systematically reconcile conflicting statistical information. The paper establishes, for the first time, a rigorous proof that MSCRs guarantee predictive consistency (Theorem 1), thereby demonstrating the solvability of the statistical ambiguity problem and offering a unified framework for causal artificial intelligence and causal machine learning that is both theoretically sound and computationally tractable.