Causal Label Recovery in Payment Networks
This study addresses systematic biases in fraud detection models within payment networks arising from chargeback labels, including authorization interception, issuer underreporting, delayed settlement, and label contamination. The authors formulate label generation as a sequential missing-data problem with a three-stage propensity scoring mechanism and an explicit contamination layer. They propose the Sequential Triple-Robust (STR) estimator—the first method capable of simultaneously correcting all four bias sources. By decoupling model training from the chargeback maturation cycle, STR enables effective use of data just days old. The estimator achieves strictly lower mean squared error than naive approaches at any sample size, and provides theoretically grounded guidance for optimal training window selection, finite-sample confidence intervals, and formal statistical guarantees.