The"double"square-root law: Evidence for the mechanical origin of market impact using Tokyo Stock Exchange data
This paper addresses the long-standing debate on the microfoundations of price impact: whether it arises mechanically from order flow or informationally from informed trading. Using high-frequency, trader-identified order-level data from the Tokyo Stock Exchange (2012–2018), we provide the first empirical evidence of the square-root impact law at the individual order level and discover that its temporal decay follows an inverse square-root pattern—collectively termed the “double square-root law”: impact ∝ √volume × 1/√time. Through meta-order reconstruction, anonymized control experiments, and nonparametric impact curve estimation, we demonstrate the robustness of this law and show that synthetically reconstructed meta-orders replicate observed impact dynamics. Our findings strongly support a purely mechanical origin of price impact, offering the first high-resolution empirical validation for market microstructure theory and challenging the dominant informational paradigm.