No Data Is Not No Risk: Visibility Aware Graph-Based Inference of Business Conduct Risk
This study addresses the challenge of corporate risk monitoring, which is often hindered by data sparsity, imbalanced distributions, and visibility bias—where unrecorded events do not necessarily imply absence of risk. The problem is formulated as a positive-unlabeled (PU) node classification task on an equity ownership graph. To tackle potential contamination from latent positive samples in the unlabeled set, the authors propose a GCNII-based framework that integrates relation-aware message passing with non-negative PU learning. By constructing a corporate ownership graph and incorporating relation-specific message propagation mechanisms, the model achieves significantly superior performance in prospective risk assessment compared to both non-graph and baseline graph-based methods, demonstrating robust predictive capability even for firms with no prior risk records.