Institution profile

Institute for Systems and Robotics

Academic institutioneurope · pt
Official website
Research library3linked papers
Opportunities0open roles
Selected work

Representative Papers

Predicting Pseudo-nitzschia harmful algal blooms along the Portuguese Coast using satellite-derived predictors

Jul 08, 2026

This study addresses the threat posed by harmful algal blooms (HABs) of Pseudo-nitzschia along the Portuguese coast to shellfish aquaculture and marine ecosystems by developing a spatiotemporal machine learning prediction framework based on satellite remote sensing data. Innovatively, river-informed spatial clustering is employed to delineate ecologically meaningful subregions, and a rigorous spatiotemporal cross-validation strategy—simultaneously excluding entire years and spatial clusters—is implemented to better reflect real-world forecasting conditions. Integrating over a thousand environmental and biological features, including sea surface temperature, upwelling indices, chlorophyll-a, and plankton functional types, the framework leverages Random Forest and Extra-Trees models. In L1–L2 hotspot zones, the models achieve an AUC of 0.74 ± 0.05 using only environmental variables, which improves to 0.77 ± 0.06 upon inclusion of biological variables, demonstrating strong potential for operational early-warning applications.

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Recent publications

Latest Papers

Predicting Pseudo-nitzschia harmful algal blooms along the Portuguese Coast using satellite-derived predictors

Jul 08, 2026

This study addresses the threat posed by harmful algal blooms (HABs) of Pseudo-nitzschia along the Portuguese coast to shellfish aquaculture and marine ecosystems by developing a spatiotemporal machine learning prediction framework based on satellite remote sensing data. Innovatively, river-informed spatial clustering is employed to delineate ecologically meaningful subregions, and a rigorous spatiotemporal cross-validation strategy—simultaneously excluding entire years and spatial clusters—is implemented to better reflect real-world forecasting conditions. Integrating over a thousand environmental and biological features, including sea surface temperature, upwelling indices, chlorophyll-a, and plankton functional types, the framework leverages Random Forest and Extra-Trees models. In L1–L2 hotspot zones, the models achieve an AUC of 0.74 ± 0.05 using only environmental variables, which improves to 0.77 ± 0.06 upon inclusion of biological variables, demonstrating strong potential for operational early-warning applications.

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