Open-Source Intelligence and Music Information Retrieval for Geographic Attribution of Musical Affect and the Ecological Limits of Population Inference
This study tests the hypothesis that regional music reflects population-level psychological traits, specifically examining whether musical emotional features can reliably infer national differences in well-being and individualism. Analyzing 2,393 unique melodies from the Essen Folksong Collection, the authors extracted eight melodic and affective features and correlated them with national indices from the World Happiness Report and Hofstede’s cultural dimensions. The work presents the first large-scale, systematic validation of measurable geographic signatures in symbolic music data, yet reveals a critical ecological fallacy: despite highly significant cross-national differences in melodic structure (p<0.001, with some effects as extreme as p<10⁻⁹⁰), none of the six tested musical-emotional indicators showed significant associations with national psychological metrics. The study establishes a reproducible analytical pipeline and proposes an empirical paradigm of “measurable but not inferable” for music-based psychological inference.